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Raoul Pal: "There's Only One Way Out Of This"
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The economy has taken a massive tumble in recent months. The U.S. inflation rate of 8.3% was among the highest in the developed world in April and May, far out-pacing Japan, France, Germany, the U.K., Italy and Canada. President Biden's administration has scrambled to find an answer to inflation and spiking gas prices, which remain near $5 per gallon nationally. There are many who view the whole financial system as broken. Crypto markets have shown extreme volatility as well, with Voyager being the latest domino to fall, as the company previously suspended trading, deposits and withdrawals due to difficult market conditions, amid a deepening meltdown in beleaguered cryptocurrency markets. Macro Investor and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal took to Twitter to express his findings to his almost 1 million followers. In a long tweet storm, Raoul shared that he sees the economic situation as terrible for seniors and a real opportunity for millennials, who have the money to make moves.
Raoul started off the Tweet storm by giving an overview of the macro market;
Not so fun macro thoughts:
Fighting 8% CPI (call that the global average - no idea actually but about right?), we have destroyed so far:
21% of global GDP in equity values
10% of global GDP in bond values
5% in other assets
And soon probably another 2% to 3% of GDP growth
Raoul then tweeted out;
That is a LOT of wealth destruction - 36% of world GDP.
Near full Covid boom unwind...and back to square one - slow growth and low inflation again (my best guess of all the possible outcomes).
My fear is for the Baby Boomers. At around 67 years old, cant afford to lose this.
The coronavirus created the most recent bear market, but it went down as the shortest on record. Stocks lost one-third of their value in 33 days in early 2020. From there, it took just six months for the S&P to recover, aided by pandemic stimulus and emergency actions by the Federal Reserve. It’s clear that we are in a bear market, but many are calling for a recession, which will most likely last longer than the 2020 downturn. The concern that Baby Boomers will lose most of their 401K.
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